Innovators create. Investors fund. Jumpstart makes it worth their while.
Ideas can be attractive, but how to turn them into success? How to assess if they can work at all? Often, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, but it requires money to make the pudding.
Reden JumpStart is there to help in this stage. The inventor needs to get money to turn his idea into reality, and the investor needs convincing information before investing. Sometimes, the outcome may not be what convinces the investor, but what helps the inventor in a different way. To illustrate JumpStart, we apply the JumpStart method to the idea of Arctic Ice Suppletion.
Arctic Reflections
Arctic Reflections is a Dutch company with the mission to preserve the arctic sea-ice. Their plan was covered in a Dutch television news show. [1] The ice acts as a giant mirror, sending sunlight back into space. If the ice melts, the sea water is exposed. It absorbs much of the incoming sunlight, turning it into heat. This accelerates the global warming, which is caused by the ever higher insulating effect of the atmosphere. Visible light can pass easily, but heat radiation is largely kept in. Until recently, a very large area of sea ice remained at the end of summer. In recent years, however, the sea ice cover has steadily shrunk.
The way Arctic Reflections wants to support the sea-ice is by pumping seawater from just under the ice (where it is very close to freezing) up to the top surface of the ice, where air temperature is below freezing. The water can now freeze due to direct cooling by the air, instead of being sheltered from the cold air by an insulating ice layer. When summer arrives, and air temperatures are no longer low enough to counteract the summer sun, or even well above freezing, the ice starts to melt. The aim is to make the ice so thick that it does not melt completely in summer, and remains an effective mirror. How thick this is depends on the location: 1.0 to 2.2 m. [2] Most of this thickness is formed naturally, the rest can be supplied by ice suppletion.
Enthusiasm and Scepticism
The polar ice suppletion idea evokes two types of reaction. Some people see the unconventionality and are attracted by the simplicity of the idea. They welcome the idea that there is something we can do, and that Arctic Reflections is doing it. Other people see the images of a small pump covering a few square metres of ice with water that does not freeze while the camera is running. In their minds, they contrast the one pump with the countless square kilometres of ice that needs to be protected. In a bid to provide nuanced journalism, the news item includes a scientist (Julienne Stroeve, University College London) who is of the opinion that the method is prohibitively expensive, energy devouring and impractical.
Jumpstart
To get from a great idea to a successful product is not always easy. Innovation can be a long and difficult journey. Before embarking on this journey, it is nice to know if it can be successful and what to do to maximise your chances. This is what Reden’s Jumpstart can help you with. [3] The idea of ice suppletion in the Arctic is a good example of a great idea which needs investment to make it successful, and therefore has to have a very solid base. Is it an idea worth investing in, or is there too much uncertainty compared to the potential benefits? In the early stages, the idea is vulnerable, as investors are understandably reluctant to back an idea which is presented enthusiastically by its inventor, but without solid, iron-clad proof-based business case.
The Jumpstart is designed to help solve this problem by a limited time, low-cost analysis of the idea and its business prospects, based on a thorough understanding of innovation. Its results can be used by the inventor to sell his idea to investors, and by investors to evaluate the idea as an investment opportunity. Perhaps most importantly, the Jumpstart shows which work must be done to bring the idea closer to maturity. Is it not just an assessment of the idea, but also a plan for developing it, as seen through the eyes of an independent innovation party.
Jumpstart has three steps. Step 1 is the Reality Check, step 2 is the Feasibility Scan, step 3 is the Action Plan.
Step 1: Reality Check
The steps of the Jumpstart will be illustrated by applying them to the Polar Ice Suppletion idea. We ask ourselves five questions:
- Is it possible from a technical point of view?
- How much effect does it have?
- How much energy does it cost?
- Is it possible from a practical point of view?
- Is it possible from a financial point of view?
Is it possible from a technical point of view?
In this case, this seems the easiest question, because it is possible to drill a hole in the ice, put a water hose in it, connect this to a pump, which is driven by a diesel engine, fed from a large fuel tank, and pump water onto the ice. However, there are complications. First, the water must not accumulate near the pump and bury it in an ice heap. The water is supposed to freeze, but does it reach far enough from the pump before it freezes? Do you need a network of pipes to distribute the water? How big an area can you serve per pump? These questions can be answered from well set up experiments, but I do not know of any results. In any case, the water needs to exit as a liquid. The minimum velocity to prevent freezing in the outlet was calculated as 9 mm/s for a 1 m length of 20 mm ID, insulated to an outer diameter of 100 mm with a material with heat conductance of 0.1 W/(m K); for larger pipes or faster flows, the problem becomes smaller, so freezing should not be a problem if the outlet is designed correctly.
So, it is possible to increase the ice thickness, but it may be difficult or expensive.
How much effect does it have?
This can be estimated as follows. Assuming, the ice survives the arctic summer, then the incoming heat is mostly reflected, whereas it would have been mostly absorbed by the water surface without ice. The amount of energy supplied by the sun differs considerably. On June 21, for instance, the maximum height of the sun above the horizon at latitude 80° is 33.4° at noon and 13.4° at midnight. [4] A month earlier and a month later, the values are 25.4° and 5.4° respectively. Using the simple formula from Wikipedia, [5] the direct normal irradiance is 793 W/m2 at noon on Jun 21, and 519 W/m2 12 hours later. This is the result of absorption in the atmosphere. The surface is normal to the sun rays. If we want the amount of radiation per unit of the earth’s surface, we have to multiply with the sine of the angle above the horizon, and we get 437 W/m2 and 117 W/m2 . A rough estimate for the average over the day and over the months is not likely to exceed 100 W/m2. This could be calculated rather than estimated, but for our purpose, the order of magnitude is sufficient.
We further assume that the difference between what the ice absorbs and what the water absorbs if no ice is present is 75% of the incoming heat, 0.75*100= 75 W/m2. This is a rough estimate of the gain per day, if no clouds are present, and during the time that sea ice is (otherwise) absent. For this period, we have to assume a length, for instance 20 days. Per square km, the amount of energy kept out of the sea is 75 * 20 * 106 = 1500 MJ/km2.
How much energy does it cost?
Assuming 0.2 m of ice is added, [6] then 0.18 m of water height must be pumped, which is 180,000 m3/km2. If we have six months to pump, then, for 1 square km, the required water flow is 180,000 m3/(6*30.5*24*3600 s) = 11.4 l/s.
If you drill a hole in (floating) ice, then the water will rise in the hole to 1/10th of the thickness of the ice below the upper surface, so if the thickness of the ice is 0.5 m at the start, and 0.68 m after the six months, the water needs to be raised (at least!) 0.05 m at first and 0.068 m at the end, or, on average 0.059 m. In practice, the water needs to be raised more, so that it can flow to the whole area covered by a pump. How much higher is not very easy to calculate, but we may assume 0.5 m as the total elevation, for simplicity (to be checked later!).
The energy of the outflowing water is its potential energy (0.5 m * 9.83 m/s2 * 1024 kg/m3 (density of salt water)= 5033 J/m3) plus its kinetic energy (at 1 m/s: 0.5*1024 kg/m3 *1 m/s*1 m/s=516 J/m3, or, in total 5549 J/m3. (the potential energy is dominant).
The energy requirement is, therefore, 5549 J/m3*180,000 m3/km2 = 1.0*109 J/ km2 = 277 kWh/ km2.
Although this does not include the efficiency of the pump yet. It is worth noting that it is less than 0.1 % of the energy kept out of the sea because the ice does not melt in summer!
Is it possible from a practical point of view?
In this step, there usually is an idea for the implementation. However, in this case, the only novelty seems to be the pumping of water, and not the way to do it. As a consequence of the implied use of pumps driven by fossil fuel, the idea has been criticised heavily. Above, the UCL researcher’s comment in the news item was mentioned. Another example of criticism is a report by the British Antarctic Survey.7 It weighs the benefits against the threats of a specific implementation, namely using wind energy. Although the verdict is not, in my opinion, as impartial as it could have been, it is likely that the use of wind energy requires material that is expensive and needs to be maintained.
So far, therefore, the question in this step of the JumpStart would, be answered in the negative: no, it is not possible from a pracital point of view with the suggested implementations.
Following the negative result of the first step (reality check), the next steps, step 2 (feasibility check) and step 3 (action plan) cannot be taken yet. Instead of more assessment, the need for a new invention is revealed.
The Action Plan is, therefore, to go back to square one and invent an implementation which takes into account what we have learned from the analysis.
Conclusion on Jumpstart
This example of how a JumpStart works does not show the whole process, because the proposed methods do not hold much promise of working well enough. The negative outcome of the reality check means that a new pumping method must be found. JumpStart is meant to be the bridge between inventor and investor, but in this case, JumpStart has found a weakness, and this gives rise to a new direction. It focuses the work to be done on the pump itself. The core piece of equipment determines the success of the whole idea.
Conclusion on Ice Suppletion
The ice suppletion idea depends on how it is executed. If it can be done, it will have a positive impact on the arctic environment and on the global environment. A pump is needed which:
- a) can survive it the ice layer melts despite the suppletion,
- b) requires little or no maintenance,
- c) is simple, cheap and clean,
- d) can be implemented quickly.
We think we have a possible solution, which will be described in a future Reden Makes Sense.
[1] Nederlands bedrijf doet in Noordpoolgebied proef om zee-ijs dikker te maken
[2] L.L van Dijke: Counteracting the annual Arctic sea ice loss by distributing seawater on top of sea ice, MSc dissertation TU Delft,2022
[3] sSee www.reden.nl/jumpstart
[4] This follows from the inclination of the earth’s axis: 23.4°
[5] Direct solar irradiance - Wikipedia
[6] This may be enough in some places, and not enough in others. See the MSc dissertation mentioned above for the different approaches to find a number. in this phase, it is important to have a number to be able to continue the calculation, but if a better estimate or a measured value becomes available, this will affect the result, so this must be remembered.
[7] Frontiers | Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects. This is an opinion paper by 42 authors, which does not look into the technical details of the plans. The dangers are not quantified, which makes it difficult to weigh them against the benefits. It was published in ‘Frontiers in Science’, but it reads more like a political manifesto. The challenge for ice suppletion is to avoid dangers to the polar regions, especially avoid large scale presence of people and avoid loss of material.
